Red wave trounces UDF in Kerala: A verdict for Secular boom

“Let the ruling classes tremble at a communist revolution. The proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains. They have a world to win. Workingmen of all countries, unite!”

-Karl Marx-

A political tsunami triggered primarily by public anger against the Oommen Chandy government has swept the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) out of power in Kerala. The landslide victory of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI (M))-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the assembly elections held in Kerala on 16 May 2016 is a clear indication that the much-touted appeal—“continuity for development”—of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) government has been turned down by the people of the state in the wake of a series of corruption charges against the ruling dispensation. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) campaign, with the slogan “Kerala lost its way and the BJP is to show the way” also did not seem to have made any significant impact on the electorate.

Brief sketch of election:

In a spectacular performance, the LDF secured 91 seats in the 140 member assembly, reducing the UDF strength to a meager 47. More importantly, the anti-incumbency wave took a heavy toll with four cabinet ministers (the controversial Minister for Excise K Babu, the Minister for Labour Shibu Baby John, the Minister for Agriculture K P Mohanan and the Minister for Welfare of Scheduled Tribes P K Jayalakshmi), the speaker N Sakthan, the deputy speaker Palode Ravi and the chief whip Thomas Unniyadan losing their seats, besides reducing the margin of the votes secured by Oommen Chandy (chief minister), K M Mani (the controversial finance minister who had to quit after the scandal relating to opening bars) and several others. The seats won by the Congress have also been reduced to an all-time low—from 38 to 22. The Indian Union Muslim League’s (IUML) tally has come down from 20 to 18, while that of the Kerala Congress (Mani) (KC(M)) from nine to six.

An interesting aspect of the 2016 election was that all fronts fielded film stars with the intention of capturing votes and the LDF succeeded in getting two of them elected. Similarly, P C George, the former government chief whip who failed to secure support from either front and contested as an independent, registered an impressive victory from his hometown in a quadrangular fight.

Malappuram is perhaps the only district where LDF has made gains on its own strength. The BJP was not a factor in the district as its votes increased only marginally from 92,000 in 2011 to 1.7 lakh this time. The votes that the UDF lost in the district are more than the votes gained by the BJP. While the BJP votes in Malappuram increased only by less than 78,000 votes in the last five years, the UDF lost votes heavily even in seats it has won. There was a steep fall of 1.37 lakhs votes in the victory margins of UDF in 12 constituencies in Malappuram.

The victory margin of UDF candidates in 12 seats it has won in Malappuram was 321,118 in the 2011 election. It came down to 183,599 votes in the present election. Similar fall in victory margins was also seen in six other seats that the IUML won outside Malappuram. This indicates a sharp division in the Muslim votes, which were monopolised by IUML until recently. If the trend continues, it will be hard for the UDF to survive by banking on minorities as its major support base.

Interestingly, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) failed to acquire a modicum of votes from the Muslim minority especially from Muslim Jam’ath who stood against the ruling party for the anti-fundamental activities that destruct the ethical concepts of Islam dealing with Hajj committee and Vaqf board. Here the stand of Sheikh Aboobacker Ahmed, general secretary of Muslim Jam’ath extremely affected in Malappuram district as the votebank of IUML brutally decreased. Here, the Kerala Muslims trait to handle the green flag had dismantled as the half part stand with red waves. Every politically veteran intellectual will definitely proclaim the fact that Kerala had witnessed a majestic victory for LDF only by the support of religious minorities. The anti- communist notions in Muslims sprouted after 1967 are slightly changing as the Muslims understood the secular approach of communists. Also, this might give an indication that minority votes, especially those of the Muslims (who constitute more than 26% of the state’s population), went in favour of secular alternatives in the wake of a fear that the Sangh Parivar was gaining ground in the anti-incumbency wave against the UDF.

The victory of the BJP candidate from the Nemom constituency, O Rajagopal, a former union minister in the government led by Atal Behari Vajpayee, is being celebrated as “the first, yet the best lotus” in the state, where most political parties as well as both fronts displayed a strong aversion to the BJP’s brand of politics. Similarly, the NDA candidate in Manjeswaram (Kasaragod District) lost the election by just 89 votes. This indicated that the BJP has been gaining ground in the state through concerted strategies entailing caste–communal equations. The NDA’s frenzied campaign in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP President Amit Shah and several union ministers provided a political boost to the NDA.

Interpretation:

The UDF government made tall claims relating to the launch of projects such as the Kochi metro rail, the Vizhinjam port, the Kochi smart city, the Kannur international airport, besides having undertaken the chief minister’s Jana Samparka Paripadi. But the corruption scandals pertaining to bars offering alchohol in hotels, the solar panel deal, the illegal allotment of lands, including the order issued a few days before the election declaring the reclamation of 378 acres of the Methran Kayal backwaters wetland at Kumarakom village in Kottayam District and 47 acres of paddy fields at Kadamakuddy in Kochi, all contributed to the debacle of the Congress-led UDF.

The LDF carried out a statewide campaign projecting its secular–democratic alternative to the Sangh Parivar’s politics of communal mobilisation. It also succeeded in highlighting how the Modi government’s neo-liberal policy regime was increasing inequality. The Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) issue, the nationalism debate, the killing of writers and intellectuals across states in India, and the beef controversy, were all subjects that came up in the election campaigns in the state. The new LDF government led by the CPI(M) has several challenges before it. The most crucial ones are related to the pending corruption cases, including the solar panel scam and liquor policy, besides issues relating to the continuance of the Kochi metro rail project, the Vizhinjam port, the Kochi smart city project, etc. The policies in the field of education, health, industry, agriculture, and the welfare of Dalits and Adivasis need to be revisited to ensure transparency, accountability and equity.

The LDF government has already come out with a bunch of promises. The success of the new dispensation, however, depends on its capacity to handle these issues and challenges in a time-bound manner without losing control over the social security matrix of the state.

BIO DATA:

Muhammed Shafeek cm is doing graduation in BA Economics from Calicut University, Kerala, India.